RAINFALL - Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:.Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning Thursday night. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and and Haiti on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico later today. Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. WIND - Hurricane conditions will continue today within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands.Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. STORM SURGE - The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma.SAN JUAN PR **EL OJO DEL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN IRMA PASANDO SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES** Instead, areas to the north such as Tampa Bay witnessed a blowout surge of water with unusually low tides ahead of Irma, then saw only modest storm surges, compared to what previous worst-case forecasts had suggested was possible.NWS Local Hurricane Statements San Juan PR AL112017 **EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CORE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS** It was even on the table that Irma's center could remain over the Gulf of Mexico before finally coming ashore in Appalachee Bay, a notoriously surge-prone area. That track, while still nailing the Florida Keys, would have pushed a much larger storm surge into Tampa Bay, Gasparilla Sound/Charlotte Harbor and Sarasota Bay, among other areas of the western Florida Gulf Coast. The actual track is shown by the solid line, color-coded by intensity.Ģ) A Bigger Surge in Fort Myers, Tampa Bay, Appalachee BayĪnother unsettling scenario that became more possible the closer Irma drew to Florida was a track that would roughly parallel the western Florida Gulf Coast, with the center remaining just offshore. Two of the track scenarios that were in play for Hurricane Irma, denoted by red arrows. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach would've been much, much, worse.Īs it turned out, an almost 4 foot surge was recorded at Virginia Key in Biscayne Bay, and several 70 to 100 mph gusts were clocked in the metro area in Irma's potent outer rainbands. The damage that would've occurred if Irma's eyewall had tracked over the heavily populated Miami-Ft. One scenario had Irma taking a turn to landfall in the Upper Keys, driving a massive storm surge not only in Miami-Dade, but also up Biscayne Bay and along part of southeast Florida's Coast as far north as West Palm Beach.Īt the time, the NHC forecast warned of a potential 5- to 10-foot storm surge in south Miami-Dade county under a worst-case scenario at high tide.

( MORE: What the Forecast Cone Really Means)ġ) Miami-Ft.

Days before Irma arrived in Florida, the official National Hurricane Center forecast cone, reflecting the potential path of Irma's center, had several bad options on the table, with entire Florida Peninsula in the cone.

Irma hurricane track noaa